Recent analysis by Clarida, Galí, and Gertler (1999), Jensen (2002), Svensson and Woodford (1999), Walsh (2002), and especially Woodford (1999a, 1999b, 2000) has been highly productive in advancing the profession’s understanding of optimal monetary policy. Specifically, these papers emphasize the importance for policy purposes of the distinction between macroeconomic models (of private behavior) that are “forward looking”—i.e., have equations that include expectations of future values of endogenous variables—and those that are not. This distinction—applied to the structural form of the model—is of great theoretical significance, since models derived from optimizing analysis almost invariably include expectations of future variables. A major point of the cited literature is that there is, in forward-looking models, an inefficiency that results from discretionary policymaking, relative to that of a well-designed policy rule, that obtains in addition to the familiar inflationary bias. (The inflationary bias has been extensively discussed in a huge literature that typically uses non-forward-looking models.) This point, which is implicit in earlier work by Currie and Levine (1993), among others, has been valuably emphasized in the cited papers, especially Woodford (1999b).
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机译：Clarida，Galí和Gertler（1999），Jensen（2002），Svensson和Woodford（1999），Walsh（2002）尤其是Woodford（1999a，1999b，2000）的最新分析在促进该行业对最优货币政策。具体而言，这些论文强调了在政策目的上区分“前瞻性”（即，具有包括对内生变量的未来价值的期望的方程）的（私人行为的）宏观经济模型的重要性。这种区别（适用于模型的结构形式）具有重要的理论意义，因为通过优化分析得出的模型几乎总是包含对未来变量的期望。所引用文献的主要观点是，在前瞻性模型中，相对于精心设计的政策规则，通行的自由决策导致效率低下，这种效率低下还得益于通货膨胀偏见。 （通货膨胀的偏见已在大量使用非前瞻性模型的大量文献中进行了广泛讨论。）这一点在Currie and Levine（1993）等人的早期工作中是隐含的，并在引用的文献中得到了有力的强调。论文，特别是伍德福德（1999b）。
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